Where is the ceiling of the Growth Enterprise Market?

Dan Bin: The probability of speculation will continue

Where is the “ceiling” of the Growth Enterprise Market?
Dan Bin: The probability of speculation will continue

What kind of concepts should be followed by policy-friendly technology stocks?

Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the opening column of the Trading Day Financial Morning Post.


The global stock market is almost green across the board, and the A50 futures index is down 1.

6%, where is the “ceiling” of GEM?

But Bin spoke!

What is Tesla’s black technology “dry electrode + super capacitor”?

  Source: Every time the bull’s eye original, every journalist has come this year, especially after the Spring Festival. Among the several major A-share indexes, the trend of the GEM index seems to have beaten chicken blood and can’t stop.

  It is obvious that some skull brokers started to warn of risks yesterday, and the turnover of A shares for four consecutive trading days exceeded one trillion.

In addition, Northbound funds today have a net deduction of 87.

0.5 billion.

Due to the global spread of new crown pneumonia, most stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific stock market have fallen today. European stock markets have also fallen sharply, and the A50 futures index has fallen by 1.


  Investors can’t help but ask, has the “ceiling” of the GEM market round been reached?

Blowouts such as the GEM have also made some market players unable to speak up.

  ”Daily Economic News” reporter noticed that in the past two days, well-known private equity investor Dan Bin successively posted his views on the GEM on Weibo and the circle of friends.

This was done, but Bin commented on WeChat in the afternoon today, saying, “Objectively, I estimate that the probability of speculation is about to continue!

The probability of the GEM rebounding to half (2610 points) or even more than half of the index drop is high!

From the point of view of the plate, the early scenic spots began for a period of time, killing cobalt first, and then killing lithium. Today, the concept of supercapacitors has set a daily limit.

  So what is the “dry electrode technology + super capacitor combination”?

What are the A-share companies in the military with these technologies?

How does this affect the lithium battery industry?

  Dan Bin: There is a high probability that speculation will continue in the market recently. It is popularly called a “full position shortfall”, which is used to portray the mentality of investors who do not have a GEM position.

  This year, especially after the Spring Festival, in the several major A-share indexes, the trend of the GEM seems to have beaten chicken blood, and it cannot stop.

At the end of today’s closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 50 have increased negatively this year, of which the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 50 has fallen by 4 this year.


  Investors can’t help but ask, has the “ceiling” of this round of GEM prices come up?

The blowout action on GEM has also made some market players unable to bear their voices.

The reporter noticed that Dan Bin, a well-known private equity person, posted his views on the GEM on Weibo and the circle of friends in the past two days.

  Today, driven by technology sectors such as 5G, after a short-term adjustment in the early morning, the GEM started to inertially rise again, and once again reached a new staged high.

Yes, in the afternoon, but Bin initiated a comment on WeChat and the circle of friends.

  The screenshots talk about the current GEM from the relevant Weibo posted by Dan Bin today, but Bin posted a post this afternoon saying, “Objectively speaking, I estimate that the trend of speculation is likely to continue for a while!

The probability of the GEM rebounding to half (2610 points) or even more than half of the index drop is high!
“At the same time, he also stood up for the liquor sector he was optimistic about,” the brothers made money, and maybe they will buy good wine.

“Finally, today, the GEM index closed at 2263.
97 points, about 15% away from the 2610 points predicted by Dan Bin.
  It is worth mentioning that, recently, GEM seems to have been the “keyword” of Weibo’s Weibo.

In a Weibo on February 21 of this year, he was also bullish on the GEM. He pointed out, “The GEM is very strong and very normal. It has fallen for almost 5 years, and it is normal for a large-level rebound!

  此外,一向以价值投资风格示人的但斌最近也在微博中坦言,“改变股票市场的‘投机文化’是非常难的,愿意为‘梦想而窒息’……早已成为了国内股票市场文化Part of it . “However, from the comments of netizens, some netizens believe that the GEM has seen overheating value.

In a comment below the Weibo post on Danwei ‘s projected GEM index that is expected to rebound to 2610 points today, some netizens said, “Many votes are indeed too crazy, especially on those concepts, pseudo-tech stocks are too crazyIt’s a bit of a pace to catch up, differentiation is inevitable, and it’s time for technology stocks to stay fake.

“And some netizens think,” It can be expected that the technology stocks are in the air, and there is a feather in the back.

Brokers: At present, we should maintain a sense of saneness in the first quarter of last year. There has also been a wave of rapid growth similar to this year.

But at that time, Dan Bin’s attitude towards the GEM was very different from now.

  在去年3月中旬,但斌针对当时创业板的强劲表现曾专门发布微博提醒投资者注意不少公司的减持风险,“市场最终还是价值决定,过去这几年‘熊市’的教育,有些投资者‘揭了伤疤忘了疼’,但还是有一些人清醒了,包括一些上市公司的大股东,他们对自己企业的价值与了解相比普通投资者更清楚,热络时才能出得去When the market cools down again, the liquidity crisis of A shares and Hong Kong stock market will appear again, so we have seen announcements from many companies to reduce their holdings.

“In fact, this year’s GEM company’s announcement of reductions is not less than in the first quarter of last year.

According to Oriental Fortune Choice data, since this year, the ratio of the number of GEM companies that have issued reduction plans to the number of GEM companies that have increased plans is 160: 3, of which there is a very large disparity.

  And last year?
In February, the ratio of the number of GEM companies that issued a reduction plan to the number of GEM companies that issued an increase plan was 137: 4.

  In addition, mid-March last year, but also described the surge in GEM at the time on Weibo as “crazy unreasonable chasing games and a desire to get rich quickly.”

  The reporter noted in an interview today that some brokerage analysts have reservations about the performance of the GEM after the rally.

Wang Yi, chief strategy analyst of Great Wall Securities, pointed out to reporters today, “This round of GEM is fund-driven, and it should now be in a bubble stage.

Then how many points can be reached next? This is a photo shoot, meaningless.

“He believes that investors should maintain a sense of sanity at the moment,” March is about to come, and the transformation of economic data is out, and the logic of the market may return to economic fundamentals.

The latest opinion released by the Haitong Securities Strategy Team yesterday pointed out that the main reason for the rapid growth of the market recently is ample liquidity, but investors still need to pay attention to the impact of poor short-term fundamentals, and Hong Kong stocks are already declining.The main reason is that investors’ short-term fundamentals have triggered adjustments in Hong Kong stocks.

  CITIC Securities believes that this round of market capitalization is coming to an end, and the second round of growth is expected to start in the second quarter.

The first round of “filling pits” in A shares this year is mainly driven by loose liquidity. After all kinds of signals are direct, their subsequent kinetic energy will tend to decline, and the market will enter a period of peace.

A shares are still in the middle of the “well-off bull” channel. It is expected that the second round of growth driven by the entry of industrial capital and the replacement of fundamentals will start in the second quarter.

  According to Choice data, after the adjustment last week, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1 again today.


This year, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by almost 5%.

  According to statistics, as of February 3, Northbound funds held positions in 232 GEM A shares; and for February 21st, 66 GEM A shares were lightened by Northbound funds, and 120 GEM A shares were closed.Northbound funds increase positions.

  A-shares that 上海夜网论坛 were deviated by Northbound funds during the period include Huatest, Yihualu, Guangguang Media, Eternal Lithium Energy, Aura New Network, etc. A-shares increased by Northbound funds include Nine Strong Bio, Weining Health, Xinghui Entertainment, Kairun, Runhe Software, etc.

  The northbound funds today deducted 87.

5.0 billion, of which, the Shanghai Stock Connect has a net of at least 48.

3 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange net decrease of 38.

7.5 billion yuan.

  Tesla’s self-built battery black technology: dry electrode + super capacitor start point, kill cobalt first, then kill lithium.

  On February 18, a related person from Tesla claimed that Tesla will independently develop new batteries. It is expected that specific component information will be announced at the April battery investor meeting.

It is reported that the cobalt content of the new battery may be zero.

  On February 19, Huayou Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt both fell and stopped.

The market expects Tesla may adopt lithium iron phosphate.

On the same day, in the Ningde era, BYD soared.

  Today, Colombia, the average price of lithium stocks fell, Huayou Cobalt plunged 7.

37%, Han Rui Cobalt plunged 9.

15%, Ningde Times fell 3.
43%, BYD fell 1.

  A person close to Tesla said: “The new battery is a combination of dry electrode technology + super capacitor. The specific composition will be explained at the Tesla battery conference in April.

“Today, the concept of supercapacitors performed very well. At the end of the closing, Xinzhu shares, Tyre shares, Siyuan Electric, Xinzhoubang, Jianghai shares, Tongfeng Electronics and other daily limit.

  So what is the “dry electrode technology + super capacitor combination”?
What are the A-share companies in the military with these technologies?

How does this affect the lithium battery industry?
  It may be that in the field of batteries, Tesla has been constantly seeking the most advanced technological direction.

Tesla announced on February 5, 2019 that 2.

Acquired Maxwell at a premium of $ 1.8 billion and a 55% premium, and completed the transaction in May of that year.

In October 2019, Tesla acquired Canadian battery manufacturing equipment and engineering technology company Hibar.

Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell was primarily aimed at acquiring its additional core technologies: dry electrodes and supercapacitors.

  According to the above acquisitions, long-term institutions expect that Tesla’s self-built batteries will also take these two top technologies as the direction in the future.

  So what is dry electrode technology?

Some analysts say that the dry electrode technology can be estimated to be another initial preparation process for existing lithium batteries. Its insertion and termination do not use solvents (by changing a particle in the positive and negative electrodes into a fibrillated gelatinous state).Material, causing its own viscosity).

As an analogy, we knead noodles at home to add water, but what if not flour instead of plasticine?

No need to add water.

  The research report of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Securities shows that the electrode manufacturing process is divided into dry method and wet method. At present, lithium batteries are mainly based on wet method, and Maxwell’s unique dry electrode manufacturing process has a significantly improved reliability for cycle life.

  In the dry method, a thin electrode film is formed by mixing activated carbon powder and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) through an extruder, and then crushing the electrode film to a metal foil electrode to form a finished electrode.

Because there is no liquid solvent in the processing process, the overall processing process saves costs compared to the wet method, and the battery life is also improved because there is no solvent residue.

  Supercapacitors have very strong advantages over traditional lithium batteries in cycle life, power density, and charge and discharge efficiency. However, due to their huge energy density and volume disadvantages, they cannot currently replace lithium batteries as the main power source for new energy vehicles.

We believe that in the future, supercapacitors will be combined with lithium batteries to form the power system of new energy vehicles.

  Based on the dry electrodes in the hands of Maxwell acquired by Tesla, the characteristics of super capacitor size technology, and Tesla’s requirements for self-built batteries to include cobalt-free, high energy density, size and other characteristics, we believe that Tesla’s self-built batteries in the futureThe plan will be: Dry electrode technology will become the key technology to differentiate Tesla from other battery companies. It will be promoted in the self-built battery production line, mainly in the direction of NCA high nickel, and solid-state batteries that may usher in a breakthrough.

According to this technology, the energy density of Tesla’s self-produced batteries will increase towards 500Wh / kg.

  As far as supercapacitors do not currently have the conditions to become an independent vehicle power source, we believe that the use of supercapacitors may be matched with lithium batteries to form a “hybrid”.

The super capacitor will be used as the instantaneous power conduction during start and stop, and the main power supply when the temperature conditions are poor, and under normal operating conditions, the lithium battery provides energy.

  Some analysts said that once the dry electrode technology is successfully applied to lithium batteries, lithium batteries will take a “solid state” step, becoming the most important breakthrough before the commercialization of all solid batteries.

There are three advantages brought by it: 1. Reduced production costs; 2. Improved energy density; 3. Improved safety.

The main function of a super capacitor is to be able to meet the high power density requirements required for instantaneous acceleration and timely recovery, which is its greatest value.

  Now that we understand the “dry electrode technology + super capacitor combination”, let’s take a look at the related industry chain of A shares.

  Founder Securities (right protection) believes that if dry electrode technology can be applied to the field of lithium batteries, and possible lithium battery + supercapacitor power solutions for new energy vehicles, the key targets include China Baoan (Silicon Carbon Oxide Leader), and New Zebang (Capacitor)+ Additives + binders), Tianna Technology (Carbon Nanotube Leader).

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